Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 0.045057 0.051766 0.058752 0.066539 0.074944 0.083714 0.093529
2025-04-13 0.033162 0.042700 0.053303 0.065812 0.080022 0.095528 0.113597
2025-04-20 0.028357 0.040012 0.053639 0.070395 0.090109 0.112263 0.138744
2025-04-27 0.022070 0.034362 0.049509 0.068907 0.092496 0.119721 0.153000
2025-05-04 0.019005 0.032134 0.049016 0.071326 0.099132 0.131847 0.172474
2025-05-11 0.015444 0.028658 0.046459 0.070769 0.101830 0.139074 0.186033
2025-05-18 0.013494 0.027107 0.046166 0.072883 0.107676 0.149994 0.203956
2025-05-25 0.011705 0.025506 0.045585 0.074444 0.112706 0.159856 0.220594
2025-06-01 0.009231 0.022425 0.042596 0.072499 0.113010 0.163709 0.229797
2025-06-08 0.007223 0.019738 0.039880 0.070674 0.113266 0.167349 0.238631
2025-06-15 0.006364 0.018930 0.039893 0.072605 0.118464 0.177243 0.255255
2025-06-22 0.005449 0.017845 0.039353 0.073657 0.122431 0.185546 0.269908
2025-06-29 0.004859 0.017398 0.039935 0.076568 0.129279 0.198042 0.290495
2025-07-06 0.003806 0.015741 0.038397 0.076277 0.131743 0.204941 0.304189
2025-07-13 0.003676 0.016166 0.040415 0.081418 0.141868 0.222001 0.331002
2025-07-20 0.002697 0.014243 0.038139 0.079813 0.142392 0.226340 0.341504
2025-07-27 0.002354 0.013876 0.038607 0.082470 0.148988 0.238781 0.362511
2025-08-03 0.001751 0.012524 0.037092 0.081862 0.150810 0.244797 0.375194
2025-08-10 0.001492 0.012147 0.037397 0.084177 0.156889 0.256577 0.395440
2025-08-17 0.001225 0.011626 0.037356 0.085885 0.162065 0.267147 0.414144
2025-08-24 0.000784 0.010115 0.035108 0.083757 0.161438 0.269711 0.422256
2025-08-31 0.000468 0.008780 0.033025 0.081758 0.160891 0.272306 0.430361
2025-09-07 0.000372 0.008529 0.033316 0.083872 0.166590 0.283577 0.450038